John Healey says the UK economy is “turning a corner.”
I hope he’s right.
But right now, that corner looks rather expensive.
The Bank of England’s next interest-rate decision arrives on 17 September. Bank Rate currently sits at 3.75%, with inflation still above the 2% target.
At the last meeting, three policymakers actually voted to raise rates.
That matters.
Because while everyone has been waiting for cheaper mortgages, the bond market has started moving the other way.
The UK’s 10-year gilt yield is currently around 5.16%, while the 30-year yield is around 5.8%. In noddy terms, investors are demanding a much higher return to lend money to the UK Government.
Higher borrowing costs for the Government can feed into swap rates and, eventually, mortgage pricing.
We’re already seeing it.
Barclays, Santander and HSBC have increased a range of mortgage rates, with some deals rising by as much as 0.25 percentage points.
It doesn’t guarantee the Bank of England will raise rates.
But it does show why waiting for mortgage rates to magically collapse could be a risky plan.
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Then we have the Budget…
The next UK Budget takes place on 28 October.
